SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (8.06%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Cerro |
41.25% ( -0.01) | 28.84% ( 0) | 29.91% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 44.22% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.89% ( -0.02) | 62.1% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.18% ( -0.01) | 81.81% ( 0.01) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( -0.02) | 29.64% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.32% ( -0.02) | 65.68% ( 0.02) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.84% ( -0.01) | 37.15% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.06% ( -0.01) | 73.94% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.14% ( -0)2-1 @ 8.06% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.3% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0)4-0 @ 1% 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 1.47% Total : 41.25% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 11.01% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.99% ( -0)Other @ 0.58% Total : 28.83% | 0-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.56% 0-2 @ 5.4% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.17% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.78% 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0)Other @ 1.78% Total : 29.91% |
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