SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 35.96%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.16%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Cerro win was 1-0 (12.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
33.93% ( -2.5) | 30.11% ( 0.19) | 35.96% ( 2.31) |
| Both teams to score 41.83% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.54% ( -0.57) | 65.46% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.79% ( -0.39) | 84.21% ( 0.39) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.98% ( -2) | 36.02% ( 2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.2% ( -2.1) | 72.8% ( 2.1) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.37% ( 1.28) | 34.63% ( -1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.65% ( 1.34) | 71.35% ( -1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 12.73% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 6.9% ( -0.38)2-0 @ 6.5% ( -0.6)3-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.27)3-0 @ 2.21% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.99% Total : 33.93% | 1-1 @ 13.5% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 12.47% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.47% Total : 30.1% | 0-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.71) 1-2 @ 7.16% ( 0.25)0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.61)1-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.29)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.95% |
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