Monza are tough to beat - or even score against - at home, while Udinese have proved particularly inept in the final third this season. That is a recipe for the Biancorossi to savour, and they should consign Gabriele Cioffi to defeat on his return to the dugout.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 52.16%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Udinese had a probability of 23.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Udinese win it was 0-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.38) 
0.16) 
