For all the joyous release of the last few days, Napoli have been off the boil for a while now, while Fiorentina may have their minds on other matters. With all the action occurring in the Stadio Maradona stands, it could be a more meandering affair on the field of play; ending in a low-scoring draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.64%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 28.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Napoli in this match.
-0.03) 
0.07) 
