There should be plenty of urgency from both sides given that each are still in the hunt for a playoff berth, but we do not believe either team will have a decisive edge on Monday, seeing as only four points currently separate them in the standings.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.06) 
