SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Manchester United |
27.21% ( 0.22) | 23.08% ( 0.16) | 49.7% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 60.23% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.43% ( -0.57) | 40.56% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.05% ( -0.58) | 62.94% ( 0.58) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.15% ( -0.14) | 27.85% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.54% ( -0.18) | 63.45% ( 0.17) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.48% ( -0.35) | 16.51% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.75% ( -0.63) | 46.25% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.8% Total : 27.21% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.09% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 9.54% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 5.73% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.66% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 2.58% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.02% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.39% Total : 49.7% |
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