SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.68%) and 0-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.48%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
23.18% ( 1.45) | 24.16% ( 0.43) | 52.66% ( -1.87) |
| Both teams to score 52.48% ( 0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.11% ( -0.23) | 48.89% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.01% ( -0.21) | 70.99% ( 0.22) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.41% ( 1.25) | 35.59% ( -1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.64% ( 1.26) | 72.36% ( -1.26) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.48% ( -0.79) | 18.52% ( 0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.24% ( -1.35) | 49.76% ( 1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.95% Total : 23.18% | 1-1 @ 11.48% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.15% | 0-1 @ 11.11% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 9.68% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 9.37% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 5.44% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 5.27% ( -0.37)2-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 2.29% ( -0.14)0-4 @ 2.22% ( -0.22)2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.27% Total : 52.66% |
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