Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 27.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.73%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.05) 
