Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.23%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 25.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
Result | ||
Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
47.23% (![]() | 27.65% (![]() | 25.11% (![]() |
Both teams to score 44.45% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.64% (![]() | 60.35% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.49% (![]() | 80.51% (![]() |
Penarol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.35% (![]() | 25.65% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.45% (![]() | 60.55% (![]() |
Progreso Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.79% (![]() | 40.21% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.15% (![]() | 76.84% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
1-0 @ 14.03% 2-0 @ 9.55% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 8.7% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4.33% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.95% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.8% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.47% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.34% ( ![]() Other @ 2.07% Total : 47.23% | 1-1 @ 12.78% (![]() 0-0 @ 10.31% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 3.96% ( ![]() Other @ 0.59% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.4% (![]() 1-2 @ 5.82% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.28% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.77% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.3% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.34% Total : 25.11% |
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