SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.61%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 20.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.3%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (8.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Penarol |
20.01% ( -0.06) | 26.38% ( 0.02) | 53.61% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 42.32% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.79% ( -0.13) | 60.22% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.6% ( -0.1) | 80.4% ( 0.1) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.72% ( -0.14) | 45.28% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.85% ( -0.11) | 81.15% ( 0.11) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.34% ( -0.04) | 22.66% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.7% ( -0.06) | 56.3% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.68% Total : 20.01% | 1-1 @ 12.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.25% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.5% Total : 26.36% | 0-1 @ 15.23% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 11.3% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.6% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.43% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.08% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.65% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 53.61% |
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