SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 25.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.87%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Penarol |
25.99% ( -0.02) | 25.58% ( -0) | 48.43% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.98% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.73% ( -0.01) | 52.26% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.03% ( -0) | 73.96% ( 0) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.02% ( -0.02) | 34.98% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.28% ( -0.02) | 71.72% ( 0.02) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.4% ( 0.01) | 21.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.31% ( 0.01) | 54.69% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 7.93% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.39% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.17% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.24% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.46% ( -0)Other @ 2.09% Total : 25.99% | 1-1 @ 12.16% 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0)Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.58% | 0-1 @ 11.57% 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.87% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.76% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.53% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.5% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.83% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.74% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.34% Total : 48.42% |
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