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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 76.54%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 3-0 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.82%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
76.54% ( -0.64) | 13.65% ( 0.44) | 9.81% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 59.38% ( -1.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.7% ( -1.65) | 25.3% ( 1.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.69% ( -2.18) | 45.31% ( 2.18) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.56% ( -0.44) | 5.44% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.73% ( -1.3) | 21.27% ( 1.31) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.79% ( -0.93) | 37.21% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.01% ( -0.93) | 73.99% ( 0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.44) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.18)1-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.46)3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.21)4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.17)5-2 @ 1.73% ( -0.15)6-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.11)6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.16)4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.08)Other @ 4.83% Total : 76.54% | 1-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.65% | 1-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 2% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.61% Total : 9.81% |
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