SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
37.25% ( -0.76) | 24.42% ( -0.07) | 38.33% ( 0.83) |
| Both teams to score 59.88% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.07% ( 0.35) | 42.92% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.67% ( 0.35) | 65.33% ( -0.34) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.11% ( -0.23) | 22.89% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.35% ( -0.34) | 56.65% ( 0.34) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% ( 0.58) | 22.34% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.18% ( 0.86) | 55.82% ( -0.86) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 7.54% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 4.09% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.28% Total : 37.25% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.42% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.4% Total : 38.33% |
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