SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 62.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 16.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Reading would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Reading | Draw | Newport County |
62.67% ( 0.13) | 20.64% ( -0.1) | 16.69% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 53.24% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.37% ( 0.4) | 42.63% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.96% ( 0.39) | 65.03% ( -0.4) |
| Reading Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.99% ( 0.16) | 13.01% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.45% ( 0.33) | 39.54% ( -0.33) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.2% ( 0.2) | 38.8% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.46% ( 0.19) | 75.53% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Reading | Draw | Newport County |
| 2-0 @ 10.49% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 10.29% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.76% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.45% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.24% Total : 62.66% | 1-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.64% | 0-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.09% Total : 16.69% |
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