Roma have not won a Derby della Capitale since March 2022, but with both momentum and club icon Daniele De Rossi on their side, they can end that drought this weekend. Goal-shy Lazio are still a work in progress under Igor Tudor, who is trying to unpick two years of 'Sarri-ball'.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.
0.16) 
-0.01) 
