SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.77%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | Roma |
45.25% ( 0.02) | 27.32% ( 0.09) | 27.43% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 47.04% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.09% ( -0.4) | 57.91% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.39% ( -0.32) | 78.62% ( 0.32) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.48% ( -0.17) | 25.52% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.63% ( -0.23) | 60.37% ( 0.23) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.16% ( -0.32) | 36.84% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.37% ( -0.32) | 73.63% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | Roma |
| 1-0 @ 12.84% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 8.77% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.99% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.2% Total : 45.25% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.72% Total : 27.31% | 0-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.81% Total : 27.43% |
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