SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 39.86%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
| 34.6% | 25.54% ( -0.01) | 39.86% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 55.58% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.65% ( 0.04) | 48.34% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.51% ( 0.03) | 70.49% ( -0.03) |
| Sagan Tosu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.1% ( 0.02) | 26.89% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.79% ( 0.02) | 62.21% ( -0.02) |
| Cerezo Osaka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.03% ( 0.02) | 23.97% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.79% ( 0.03) | 58.21% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sagan Tosu | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
| 1-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.48% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.48% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.43% 4-1 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 3.1% Total : 34.6% | 1-1 @ 12.09% 0-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.67% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.54% | 0-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0)0-2 @ 6.58% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.11% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.13% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.47% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.95% Total : 39.86% |
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