Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 (11.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
