Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.