SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 45.83%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 29.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Orenburg |
45.83% ( -0.04) | 24.4% ( 0.04) | 29.77% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 57.57% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.09% ( -0.16) | 44.91% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.73% ( -0.16) | 67.26% ( 0.15) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.28% ( -0.08) | 19.72% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.26% ( -0.14) | 51.73% ( 0.13) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.71% ( -0.08) | 28.28% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36% ( -0.1) | 64% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Orenburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.98% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 45.83% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.39% | 1-2 @ 7.22% 0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0)1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 2.72% Total : 29.77% |
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