Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 51.83%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
