SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | China | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | China | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Tajikistan | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Lebanon |
38.49% ( -9.1) | 28.09% ( 1.28) | 33.41% ( 7.82) |
| Both teams to score 47.29% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.23% ( -1.59) | 58.77% ( 1.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.71% ( -1.25) | 79.3% ( 1.25) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.4% ( -5.53) | 29.6% ( 5.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.37% ( -7.29) | 65.63% ( 7.29) |
| Lebanon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.18% ( 5.19) | 32.82% ( -5.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.61% ( 5.39) | 69.39% ( -5.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Lebanon |
| 1-0 @ 11.82% ( -1.2) 2-1 @ 8.02% ( -0.96)2-0 @ 7.2% ( -2.08)3-1 @ 3.26% ( -1.01)3-0 @ 2.92% ( -1.48)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.25)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.53)Other @ 2.46% Total : 38.49% | 1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.57) 0-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.57)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.09% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( 1.97) 1-2 @ 7.34% ( 1.24)0-2 @ 6.03% ( 1.75)1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.76)0-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.86)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.26)Other @ 2.6% Total : 33.41% |
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