SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The Strongest win with a probability of 54.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a The Strongest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for The Strongest in this match.
| Result | ||
| The Strongest | Draw | Penarol |
54.66% ( 0.12) | 23.87% ( -0.05) | 21.46% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 51.17% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.46% ( 0.13) | 49.54% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.43% ( 0.12) | 71.57% ( -0.12) |
| The Strongest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.98% ( 0.09) | 18.01% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.11% ( 0.16) | 48.88% ( -0.16) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.41% ( 0) | 37.59% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.63% ( 0) | 74.37% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| The Strongest | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.68% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.42% Total : 54.65% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.87% | 0-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.62% Total : 21.46% |
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