Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 36.36%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (12.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
Result | ||
Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
36.36% ( 0) | 29.38% ( -0) | 34.25% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 43.78% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
36.87% ( 0) | 63.13% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.44% ( 0) | 82.56% ( -0) |
Penarol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.87% ( 0) | 33.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.27% ( 0) | 69.73% ( -0.01) |
Defensor Sporting Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.46% | 34.53% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.75% ( 0) | 71.25% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Penarol | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
1-0 @ 12.63% 2-1 @ 7.42% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.57% 3-2 @ 1.45% Other @ 2.56% Total : 36.35% | 1-1 @ 13.43% 0-0 @ 11.44% 2-2 @ 3.95% ( 0) Other @ 0.56% Total : 29.37% | 0-1 @ 12.16% 1-2 @ 7.14% 0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.53% 0-3 @ 2.29% 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 34.25% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups: