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Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 21, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
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The Strongest
1 - 0
Penarol

Triverio (44' pen.)
Wayar (17'), Ayarza (57'), Aimar (63')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Aguerre (53'), Fernandez (64'), Baez (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, August 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, August 17 at 9pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: The Strongest 1-0 Penarol (Penarol advances 4-1 on aggregate)

No one expects much from the Bolivians after what happened in the opening leg, and with little pressure on their shoulders, we expect them to be a lot more compact defensively and perhaps exit the competition on a positive note. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The Strongest win with a probability of 54.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 21.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a The Strongest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for The Strongest in this match.

Result
The StrongestDrawPenarol
54.66% (0.119 0.12) 23.87% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05) 21.46% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 51.17% (0.061 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.46% (0.13 0.13)49.54% (-0.131 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.43% (0.116 0.12)71.57% (-0.117 -0.12)
The Strongest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.98% (0.091999999999999 0.09)18.01% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.11% (0.16 0.16)48.88% (-0.161 -0.16)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.41% (0.0039999999999978 0)37.59% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.63% (0.0019999999999989 0)74.37% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    The Strongest 54.65%
    Penarol 21.46%
    Draw 23.87%
The StrongestDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 11.6% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.95% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.68% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.56% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.72% (0.011 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.44% (0.017 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.38% (0.017 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.17% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 54.65%
1-1 @ 11.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 6.77% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.76% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 23.87%
0-1 @ 6.62% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-2 @ 5.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.24% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.81% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.55% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 21.46%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, August 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Gremio 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, May 29 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 4-0 Huachipato
Wednesday, May 15 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: The Strongest 1-0 Estudiantes
Friday, May 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Huachipato 0-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, April 24 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Estudiantes 2-1 The Strongest
Tuesday, April 9 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, August 17 at 9pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 4-0 The Strongest
Wednesday, August 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Penarol (0-0 pen.)
Sunday, August 4 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 1-0 Defensor
Saturday, July 27 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Fenix
Sunday, July 21 at 8pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: River Plate 1-3 Penarol
Sunday, July 14 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division


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