Having scored at least two goals at home in the group stage, Penarol will hope to continue that run against one of the worst travellers among the qualified teams, keen to go into next week's reverse fixture in La Paz with a positive result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.46%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for The Strongest had a probability of 24.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a The Strongest win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
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