SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 46.47%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 25.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.27%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.82%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tigre | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
46.47% ( 2.09) | 27.58% ( -1.26) | 25.95% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 45.28% ( 2.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.36% ( 3.67) | 59.63% ( -3.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.04% ( 2.73) | 79.96% ( -2.73) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.3% ( 2.8) | 25.7% ( -2.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.38% ( 3.66) | 60.61% ( -3.66) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.94% ( 1.35) | 39.05% ( -1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.22% ( 1.25) | 75.77% ( -1.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tigre | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.82) 2-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.19)2-1 @ 8.71% ( 0.49)3-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.4)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.51)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.3)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.23)4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.26)Other @ 2.09% Total : 46.46% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( -0.27) 0-0 @ 10.03% ( -1.48)2-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.37)Other @ 0.63% Total : 27.57% | 0-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.99) 1-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.16)Other @ 1.49% Total : 25.95% |
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