Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 48.92%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (8.86%). The likeliest Tigre win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
