SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| 9 | Tigre | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Argentinos Juniors | 12 | 3 | 19 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 22 | Central Cordoba | 12 | -8 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 45.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (9.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tigre | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
45.66% ( 0.05) | 27.54% ( -0.01) | 26.79% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.99% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.96% ( -0.01) | 59.03% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.5% ( -0.01) | 79.49% ( 0) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.17% ( 0.02) | 25.82% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.21% ( 0.03) | 60.79% ( -0.03) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62% ( -0.05) | 37.99% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.23% ( -0.05) | 74.76% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tigre | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 13.28% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.7% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.9% 4-0 @ 1.37% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 2.1% Total : 45.66% | 1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 9.81% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.21% ( -0)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.54% | 0-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0)Other @ 1.64% Total : 26.79% |
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