SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 54.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 19.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
54.4% ( 0.17) | 26.35% ( -0.06) | 19.24% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 41.35% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.08% ( 0.07) | 60.91% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.07% ( 0.05) | 80.93% ( -0.05) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.38% ( 0.1) | 22.61% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.77% ( 0.15) | 56.23% ( -0.15) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.43% ( -0.1) | 46.57% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.84% ( -0.08) | 82.16% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estudiantes | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 15.65% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11.63% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 54.39% | 1-1 @ 11.96% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.53% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.46% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 19.24% |
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