SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Uruguay | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Panama | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | USA | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Bolivia | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 58.94%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 17.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Jamaica win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Jamaica |
58.94% ( -0.03) | 23.58% ( -0.02) | 17.48% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 45.74% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.52% ( 0.16) | 53.48% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25% ( 0.13) | 75% ( -0.13) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.11% ( 0.05) | 17.89% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.32% ( 0.08) | 48.68% ( -0.07) |
| Jamaica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.71% ( 0.16) | 44.29% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.64% ( 0.13) | 80.36% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| USA | Draw | Jamaica |
| 1-0 @ 13.63% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.73% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.9% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.93% | 1-1 @ 11.1% 0-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.66% Total : 23.58% | 0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 17.48% |
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