Given that Real Valladolid have the third-worst offensive record in La Liga – and Valencia have the best defensive record in the bottom half – we expect the relegation rivals to play out a cagey stalemate at the Mestalla.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 17.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
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