SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 51.68%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 24.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Gremio |
51.68% ( -0.19) | 24.23% ( -0.03) | 24.09% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 53.29% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.68% ( 0.35) | 48.32% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.53% ( 0.32) | 70.46% ( -0.32) |
| Vasco da Gama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.31% ( 0.06) | 18.68% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.97% ( 0.1) | 50.03% ( -0.1) |
| Gremio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.53% ( 0.39) | 34.46% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.82% ( 0.41) | 71.18% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vasco da Gama | Draw | Gremio |
| 1-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.24% Total : 51.68% | 1-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.22% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.13% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.15% Total : 24.09% |
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