SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.85%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 14.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
14.19% ( 0.13) | 18.96% ( 0.03) | 66.85% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 52.97% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.02% ( 0.18) | 39.98% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.66% ( 0.19) | 62.35% ( -0.18) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.56% ( 0.3) | 40.44% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.95% ( 0.27) | 77.05% ( -0.26) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.93% ( 0.02) | 11.07% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.57% ( 0.02) | 35.44% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4.05% 2-1 @ 4.04% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.7% Total : 14.19% | 1-1 @ 8.92% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.48% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.96% | 0-2 @ 10.84% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.08)1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 7.96% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 7.2% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 4.38% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 3.96% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.74% ( 0)Other @ 4.12% Total : 66.85% |
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