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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.68%. A win for Western United had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.73%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Western United win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
41.68% ( -0.28) | 23.26% ( 0.27) | 35.05% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63.93% ( -1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.47% ( -1.32) | 37.52% ( 1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.25% ( -1.43) | 59.75% ( 1.43) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.53% ( -0.66) | 18.47% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.33% ( -1.13) | 49.67% ( 1.13) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.42% ( -0.6) | 21.58% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.32% ( -0.93) | 54.67% ( 0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Western United |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.73% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 3.2% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.66% Total : 41.68% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.11% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.71% Total : 35.05% |
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