Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 33.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (5.92%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
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