While in-form FC Koln have won four of their last six matches to steer clear of relegation trouble, Werder Bremen have suffered seven defeats in 10 outings to remain in danger.
With that in mind, we expect the Billy Goats to notch a fourth successive away victory on Saturday, inflicting a fifth straight home defeat on the River Islanders in the process.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 38.21%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 37.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.79%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
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