Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club America win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 19.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club America win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club America would win this match.
