Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Necaxa win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Necaxa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.48%) and 2-1 (8.41%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
