Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Leon win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Leon win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
