SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pachuca win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pachuca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pachuca | Draw | Toluca |
47.76% ( -0.72) | 23.47% ( 0.55) | 28.77% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 60.11% ( -1.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.73% ( -2.47) | 41.27% ( 2.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.33% ( -2.55) | 63.67% ( 2.55) |
| Pachuca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.49% ( -1.21) | 17.51% ( 1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.98% ( -2.15) | 48.02% ( 2.15) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.87% ( -1.13) | 27.13% ( 1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.48% ( -1.5) | 62.52% ( 1.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pachuca | Draw | Toluca |
| 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.59)2-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.22)3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.26)4-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.18)Other @ 3.89% Total : 47.76% | 1-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.44) 2-2 @ 6.14% ( -0.19)0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.51)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.47% | 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.49)0-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1% ( -0.06)Other @ 3% Total : 28.77% |
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