We expect to see a reaction from Lille on Friday after their humiliatingly heavy defeat to PSG last weekend. As such, another marginal defeat for newly-promoted Ajaccio may be on the cards, with Pantaloni facing an uphill battle to guide them to safety this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 35.85%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.18%) and 1-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (13.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Ajaccio	Draw	Lille
32.67% ( -0.13)	31.48% ( -0.06)	35.85% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 38.35% (

0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

30.51% (

0.14)

69.49% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

13.09% (

0.09)

86.91% (

-0.09)

Ajaccio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.8% (

-0.01)

39.2% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.09% (

-0.01)

75.91% (

0.01)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.07% (

0.21)

36.93% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.29% (

0.21)

73.72% (

-0.21)

Score Analysis

Ajaccio 32.67%

Lille 35.85%

Draw 31.47%

Ajaccio	Draw	Lille
1-0 @ 13.55% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.35% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.32% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 3-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.51% Total : 32.67%	0-0 @ 14.47% ( -0.08) 1-1 @ 13.5% 2-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.35% Total : 31.47%	0-1 @ 14.42% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.18% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.85% Total : 35.85%