We expect to see a reaction from Lille on Friday after their humiliatingly heavy defeat to PSG last weekend.
As such, another marginal defeat for newly-promoted Ajaccio may be on the cards, with Pantaloni facing an uphill battle to guide them to safety this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 35.85%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 32.67% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.18%) and 1-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (13.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
-0.13) 
0.18) 
