Even with five at the back, Troyes have rarely looked comfortable defending this season, and we expect them to have a hard time containing a dynamic Monegasque attack who have plenty of offensive punch.
Monaco have won the last five contests against ESTAC and have never lost to them at Louis II, scoring eight goals in their previous three home outings versus Troyes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 69.78%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 11.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
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