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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16
Dec 17, 2023 at 4.05pm UK
Stade Velodrome
CF

Marseille
2 - 1
Clermont

Murillo (26'), Harit (42')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Allevinah (58')
Seidu (67'), Gastien (85'), Caufriez (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Marseille
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Clermont 0-0 Lille
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-0 Clermont

Even though they lost in midweek, we expect Marseille to maintain their solid domestic form against a side in Clermont who have been unable to do much besides stay back and try to frustrate the opposition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 65.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Clermont had a probability of 14.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Clermont win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawClermont
65.58% (1.447 1.45) 20.19% (-0.77 -0.77) 14.23% (-0.676 -0.68)
Both teams to score 48.88% (0.761 0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.55% (1.914 1.91)45.45% (-1.912 -1.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.22% (1.803 1.8)67.78% (-1.802 -1.8)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.97% (1.03 1.03)13.03% (-1.028 -1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.41% (2.059 2.06)39.59% (-2.057 -2.06)
Clermont Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.21% (0.212 0.21)43.8% (-0.209 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.05% (0.175 0.18)79.95% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 65.58%
    Clermont 14.23%
    Draw 20.19%
MarseilleDrawClermont
2-0 @ 11.85% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
1-0 @ 11.63% (-0.5 -0.5)
2-1 @ 9.78% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.05% (0.262 0.26)
3-1 @ 6.65% (0.255 0.26)
4-0 @ 4.1% (0.282 0.28)
4-1 @ 3.39% (0.251 0.25)
3-2 @ 2.74% (0.121 0.12)
5-0 @ 1.67% (0.173 0.17)
4-2 @ 1.4% (0.111 0.11)
5-1 @ 1.38% (0.15 0.15)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 65.58%
1-1 @ 9.6% (-0.362 -0.36)
0-0 @ 5.71% (-0.48 -0.48)
2-2 @ 4.04% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 20.19%
0-1 @ 4.71% (-0.367 -0.37)
1-2 @ 3.96% (-0.125 -0.13)
0-2 @ 1.95% (-0.139 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.11% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.09% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 14.23%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Brighton 1-0 Marseille
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Lorient 2-4 Marseille
Sunday, December 10 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 3-0 Lyon
Wednesday, December 6 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Rennes
Sunday, December 3 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 4-3 Ajax
Thursday, November 30 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 0-0 Lille
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 3-0 Clermont
Sunday, December 3 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 1-1 Clermont
Wednesday, November 29 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 0-3 Lens
Saturday, November 25 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 1-0 Lorient
Sunday, November 12 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Strasbourg 0-0 Clermont
Sunday, November 5 at 2pm in Ligue 1


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