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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 33
May 12, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
LL

Marseille
3 - 1
Lorient

Aubameyang (36', 54' pen.), Gigot (41')
Aubameyang (49'), Gueye (73'), Murillo (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Mendy (43')
Laporte (17'), Katseris (51'), Bamba (61'), Abergel (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Marseille
Thursday, May 9 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Lens 2-0 Lorient
Friday, May 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 3-1 Lorient

Marseille would have been disappointed with Thursday's display in Bergamo, but we think that they will produce a positive response to showcase their attacking talent against a Lorient side that has the worst defensive record in the division. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.11%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 14.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (4.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Marseille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
MarseilleDrawLorient
67.11% (0.015999999999991 0.02) 18.86%14.03% (-0.013 -0.01)
Both teams to score 52.89% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.14% (-0.026999999999994 -0.03)39.86% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.78% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)62.22% (0.031000000000006 0.03)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.03% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)10.97% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.79% (-0.0069999999999908 -0.01)35.21% (0.012 0.01)
Lorient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.41% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)40.59% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.81% (-0.032999999999998 -0.03)77.19% (0.036999999999992 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 67.11%
    Lorient 14.03%
    Draw 18.86%
MarseilleDrawLorient
2-0 @ 10.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 9.84% (0.012 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 8.01% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.22% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 4.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 3.99% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.26% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 1.96% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
5-1 @ 1.76% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 4.17%
Total : 67.11%
1-1 @ 8.87% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 4.45% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 18.86%
0-1 @ 4.01% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-2 @ 4% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 1.81% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 1.2% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 14.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Marseille
Thursday, May 9 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 1-1 Atalanta
Thursday, May 2 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 2-1 Lens
Sunday, April 28 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Nice
Wednesday, April 24 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 2-2 Marseille
Sunday, April 21 at 6.15pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 1-0 Benfica (4-2 pen.)
Thursday, April 18 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Lens 2-0 Lorient
Friday, May 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 1-2 Toulouse
Sunday, April 28 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 1-4 PSG
Wednesday, April 24 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nice 3-0 Lorient
Friday, April 19 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 2-0 Lorient
Sunday, April 7 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 0-1 Brest
Sunday, March 31 at 12pm in Ligue 1


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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