Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 36.73%. A win for Metz had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Metz win was 1-0 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.03) 
