Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 36.39%. A win for Nimes had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (6.58%). The likeliest Nimes win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
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