Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nimes win with a probability of 47.43%. A win for Pau had a probability of 27.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nimes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nimes would win this match.
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