Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Quevilly had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Quevilly win was 1-0 (10.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.02) 
