Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Valenciennes had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Valenciennes win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
